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Webinar Q&A – Vertical Mobility: Start-ups Flying Mobility to New Horizon
Mobility
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These are the Q&A from the webinar Vertical Mobility: Start-ups Flying Mobility to New Horizon.
Q. What are the first categories of consumers?
A. The first category of consumers might be those who travel from the city center to the airport regularly. As per GIS estimates, more than 90% of the airports are in a 30km radius from the city center so airport shuttle service can be an initial type of business model for VTOL.
Q. Where is the business? Goods or passengers?
A. Initially, it could be goods mobility since this segment is not heavily restricted by stringent regulations and it’s relatively safe because of the absence of passengers.
Q. Given the capital-intensive nature of the vertical aerospace ecosystem, do you expect more vertically integrated business models to be successful? (eg linking end to end land transport, mobility platforms, lounges etc as well as the air transportation)?
A. We see integrated mobility business models coming in the future since its good utilization of space and resources. If UAM players can keep the optimum cost of passengers per travel low then initial investment can be recovered quickly.
Q. What about commercial vehicle manufacturers? What do they do?
A. As per our knowledge, no pure-play commercial truck manufacturers have invested in passenger VTOL startups so far. Although Daimler and Volvo are indirectly associated with Volocopter.
Q. What do you think COVID could Impact the urban air mobility Business?
A. We expect investments in UAM to slow down, particularly in the next 2-3 quarters. But we are positive that by year-end we will see close to $1.3B funding in passenger UAM. Our outlook for the long-term development of UAM is not affected since its a type of micro-mobility, its carbon-free and it can ease traffic congestion since cities are growing big day by day which is increasing travel time and pollution. A Morgan Stanley analysis estimates that the global market for on-demand, short-distance urban air travel could top $850 billion by 2040.
Q. How the aircraft companies (AIRBUS, BOEING, EMBRAER,…), that were strongly impacted by COVID-19 disruption, threading their whole business, will be able to fund the Solution ofr all the challenges of vertical mobility?
A. We see many players being optimistic in finding a solution for future urban air mobility based on their recent developments.. Airbus reaffirmed its commitment to the CityAirbus eVTOL program in the first week of May 2020 and is quite positive about UAM’s future. Boeing also has recently partnered with Tactile robotics for eVTOL developments. New Zealand govt has recently approved Wisk to test VTOL with passengers which is a joint venture between Kitty hawk and Boeing in Feb-2020. Embraer recently (May-2020) introduced the New VTOL Concept of Glass Pod.
Q. What are the funding opportunities for startups in the UAM infrastructure market, such as vertiport design and compliance?
A. Few vertiport startups have received funding so far. Skyports is the only startup in UAM infrastructure that has received a significant amount of funding of USD 7.5M, USD 0.8Million of it was received in March-2020.
Q. Does at this stage a harmonization workstream exists among Civil Aviation Authorities to set up a unique regulatory framework or at least common implementation guidelines in terms of initial airworthiness and from an airspace point of view?
A. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) released some details on how manufacturers can reach compliance in a document that will be open to industry comment until July 24, 2020. More comprehensive information on compliance with EASA regulation will be presented during the 2020 EASA Rotorcraft and VTOL Symposium scheduled for November 10-12, 2020, according to the agency.EHang obtained commercial pilot operation approval from the Civil Aviation Administration of China (“CAAC”) to use EHang 216 passenger-grade AAVs for air logistics purposes in the last week of May. So it could be a country in Europe or China progressing with UAM regulations and looks possible to come by 2021.
Q. The biggest challenge around UAM is regulatory hurdles. Is there any country progressing with UAM regulations and looks possible to come by 2021?
A. European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) released some details on how manufacturers can reach compliance in a document that will be open to industry comment until July 24, 2020. More comprehensive information on compliance with EASA regulation will be presented during the 2020 EASA Rotorcraft and VTOL Symposium scheduled for November 10-12, 2020, according to the agency.EHang obtained commercial pilot operation approval from the Civil Aviation Administration of China (“CAAC”) to use EHang 216 passenger-grade AAVs for air logistics purposes in the last week of May. So it could be a country in Europe or China progressing with UAM regulations and looks possible to come by 2021.
Q. What link between vertical mobility and urban plan of cities?
A. Cities need to consider a number of factors before designing infrastructure for eVTOL. Approaches and departures, landings and takeoffs, passenger loading and unloading, security, charging/refueling. Operators should be able to place vertiports in only those locations that help reduce congestion—and provide equal access to different types of passengers and cargo. Noise in vertiport design and placement in new building construction should be considered. eVTOLs need predefined and dedicated backup sites for unplanned landings.
Q. Why is there a no cross over between Airships and VTOL technology? Maybe a personal heavier than air airship? Safer, Quieter, Energy-efficient, etc.
A. Because airships require huge space for the operation they are not feasible for inter-city travel. Some additional limitations for airship hybrid VTOL are: Airships cannot operate in all weather conditions; Airships are easily suspectable to fires
Q. What is your opinion of Airspeed racing?
A. Alauda unveiled the prototype back in July 2019 and now the company is testing a new MK4 model of the Airspeeder that can be used in future races which they are planning in Australia in late 2020. But safety and regulation are some of the biggest hurdles for Airspeed racing so we don’t think that it will be possible soon.
Q. How do propulsion systems and batteries need to develop in order for vertical mobility to be adopted?
A. As per rough estimates, for 360 kg total load with a passenger, you need at least 10kwh of the lithium-ion battery pack to travel 30km at 100kmph speed. The multi-rotor propulsion system architecture can be a safer option if noise levels are reduced.
Q. Would the Hybrid approach: Combination of Lighter than air, wing, and motor a possible way?
A. A hybrid between airship and VTOL requires huge space for operation and certainly not feasible for inter-city travel. Some additional limitations for airship hybrid VTOL are: Airships cannot operate in all weather conditions; Airships are easily suspectable to fires.
Q. How to tackle the noise and safety issues? How to get acceptance by urban people?
A. Fixed-wing eVTOLs like that of Jetoptera, Lilium and pipistrel, are some of the VTOLs which don’t rely on rotors much. According to the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, the maximum exposure time at 85 dBA is eight hours. At 110 dBA, the maximum exposure time is one minute and 29 seconds. Safety can be increased by stringent validation norms and rigorous testing of VTOL before commercial operations.
Q. Do you think aviation will be able soon to stop the railway development?
A. We don’t think so since railways carry a large number of passengers at a time, be it the intercity or intracity and targetted class of UAM at least initially is different. Also, UAM is a type of micro-mobility so it won’t stop the railway development in the near future. But we need to keep in mind certain factors while designing new railway stations for eVTOL landing and take-off.
Q. This is very informative. How do you see the UAM being accepted at the consumers’ end?
A. Safety, initial ticket cost, Noise, and reliability are some of the important factors for consumer acceptance of UAM. UAM since its a form of micro-mobility so if UAM players can gain consumer confidence with regards to the above four mention factors then it can be readily accepted by consumers in the near term.
Q. How will this affect the airspace structure and what is happening presently?
A. Airspace structure might impact to cope up with Aircraft and eVTOL simultaneously but Vertiport need separate space since travel won’t be only between airport and Home, It could be between Home to office or office to malls, etc. There should be a separate location where eVTOL will remain idle when they are not flying. Leonardo and Falcon Aviation Services have uniquely combined a helipad, lounge areas, and showroom in a single city-based heliport shown as a concept in a recent development similar concept was shown by Uber and Hyundai. Some players like eHang have a tie-up with the hotel in China where the top location of the hotel can be used as Vertiport.
Q. Where do you think we are in the Hype Curve?
A. As per Gartner, we are just below the pick of inflated expectations on the descending side of the curve.
Q. Why did you not add technology maturity? Is there a link with the development of electric mobility?
A. Of all the VTOL types we are covering, we see multi-copter technology type VTOLs will be matured first and they will be electric.
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