Future of H2-Fueled Commercial Vehicle Mobility
6 min readThe need for zero-emission heavy-duty transport has never been greater. Electrification of commercial vehicles will play an essential role in the journey towards a carbon-neutral society since long-haul truck applications contribute a large amount of the CO2 emissions from CVs.
Hydrogen-fueled electrification of commercial vehicles holds a high potential for meeting zero-to-neutral tailpipe emission requirements. By large, this is possible with the natural advantages of extended range, faster refueling, and lower emissions than battery-electric powertrains, which fuel cell-electric powertrains can achieve.
Policy, industrial and research activities accelerate the adoption of Hydrogen in Commercial Mobility
Roadmaps to decarbonize heavy-duty trucks using Hydrogen got a shot in the arm in 2020 from regulations, industry coalitions, and technological advancements, thus accelerating the race to commercialization by 2030.
Investments in expansion of refueling infrastructure across significant markets and development of fuel cells to decarbonize trucks and support Hydrogen Mobility rebounded to $1.7 billion in 2021, from $0.5 billion and $2.7 billion in 2020 and 2019, respectively.
Regulations and policies promoting Hydrogen are maturing, primarily due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the changing sentiment towards Sustainability. These forces push for the development of refueling infrastructure, which has been a chicken-and-egg problem.
Finally, there is a sharp shift to zero-emission technologies from the industry, which now realizes the potential of HFV for Commercial mobility to meet sustainability goals. OEMs are focusing on 2030, and they need scalable real-world technological solutions. OEMs and suppliers are signing long-term supply contacts to deploy hydrogen trucks and build up an ecosystem for the same.
Advanced research and industrial activity aim at tackling the barriers of Hydrogen for commercial vehicle mobility
2020 witnessed an increase in the market push for Hydrogen Fuel Cells (HFC). For instance, an exponential rise in R&D investments to tackle the techno-commercial roadblocks such as the low utilization of refueling stations, the need for reductions in fuel cell and storage costs, and safer operation of ammonia’s nature limits during its deployment.
Lack of infrastructure, the source of Hydrogen, not being able to charge FCVs from home, cost, and safety issues are some of the reasons which limit FCV’s adoption. Now, to solve cost-related concerns, governments across the globe will have to offer subsidies. Suppose policymakers, fuel suppliers, and OEMs decide that investments in Hydrogen and FCVs are worthwhile activities. In that case, they should be targeted to regions where average daily vehicle miles traveled are high so that consumers demand the range of an FCV.
Hydrogen storage materials are evolving to facilitate efficient utilization for commercial applications. FutureBridge’s benchmarking of eleven hydrogen storage technologies reveals that Borohydrides, Amide/Imide Mixtures, and Dibenzylto luene are the most feasible options. They perform well in terms of gravimetric and volumetric density and cost. Highly-porous Graphene–carbon nanotube hybrid catalysts, Selenium-graphene-based catalysts, and new fuel cell designs are expected to enhance efficiency. These are promising solutions that are under constant research by academia and research institutes.
Novel powertrain designs such as Polymer Electrolyte (PE) and Solid-Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFC) could emerge as reliable power sources to replace diesel engines making Hydrogen Trucks a reality by 2030.
“We expect that early-stage R&D to enable technologies that reduce the cost of hydrogen delivery and dispensing to $7/kg to by 2025.”
COVID-19 accelerates regulation & policy shift towards Hydrogen, especially in Europe
“The pandemic-induced disruption in the supply chain of EV batteries opens up opportunities for a faster transition to Hydrogen Mobility, as demonstrated by the sharp increase in investments in 2021.”
Regulations promoting hydrogen mobility are maturing, primarily due to the accelerated sentiment towards Sustainability and Green Mobility. However, Policy coverage for heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) still lags behind that of light-duty vehicles (LDVs
- European Union’s (EU) mandate to reduce CO2 emissions from new commercial vehicles by 30% by 2030 has entered into force. EU has mandated that from 2025, a cut of 15% is compulsory, and by 2030 their emissions need to be cut by 30%. Large lorries account for 65-70% of all CO2 emissions from heavy-duty vehicles. As a response to COVID and its implications on the supply chain of BEVs, Europe has accelerated its shift towards the Hydrogen economy and has aggressively committed to putting the necessary infrastructure in place for green Hydrogen (the infrastructure for which is not just at the pump).
- Similarly, Japan has mandated fuel efficiency improvements of c.14% for trucks and buses by 2025.
- The USA formed a new coalition – Hydrogen Forward to advance hydrogen policy
- Korea passed the “Hydrogen Law,” laying the legal basis for the government’s support to H2 and safety standards for facilities.
The first-ever trucking industry commitment to zero-emission trucks promotes FCH by 2030
Late 2020 and early 2021 saw a sharp shift to zero-emission technologies from the Trucking industry, which now realizes the potential of HFC for Commercial mobility to meet sustainability goals. OEMs are currently focusing on 2030, and they need scalable real-world technological solutions.
With OEM roadmaps now focused on 2030, trucking industry coalitions are now committed to phasing out ICE. In Europe, for the first time, the commercial vehicle industry pledged that by 2040 all-new trucks sold need to be fossil-free to reach Europe’s carbon-neutrality goal by 2050.
- In November 2020, Toyota, Hyundai, Honda, HYZON Motors, Ballard, Michelin, Total, Engie, Shell, and BMW Group committed to adopting hydrogen trucks.
- In December 2020, Daimler, Scania, Man, Volvo, Daf, Iveco, Ford agreed to the transition to zero-emission road freight transport. 2021 has already seen seven collaborations in Hydrogen Trucks between Honda-Isuzu, Faurecia-Hyundai, Daimler-Volvo, and Toyota-Hin, among others.
- Collaborations, product launches, service launches, and other activities are fueling the adoption of Hydrogen Fuel cell trucks
Watch out for Hydrogen mobility by 2030
FutureBridge’s analysis of the evolution of technology readiness level of Fuel cells and Hydrogen (FCH) in heavy-duty trucks unveils that they are comparable to battery electric technologies. The increased range and very low emissions make them a viable solution for long-haul mobility. However, the cost of hydrogen production and hydrogen vehicles must come down significantly to make Hydrogen economically competitive with alternatives. The future acceleration of HFCEVs is likely not about the vehicles or the fueling but more about creating and distributing the Hydrogen itself.
A clear ambition for increased deployment of commercial fuel cell vehicles and better H2 infrastructure can be observed from the publicly stated plans of entities and governments in Europe and China. North America, Europe, and Asia introduced CO2 emission standards for heavy-duty trucks, but further policy alignment is needed to standardize storage and interface technologies.
For the sake of a carbon-neutral future, policymakers and private industry must come together to push HFCEVs into the mainstream. By now, it’s pretty clear that fuel cell technology is the only zero-emission solution that can enable freight transportation without payload compromise.
References
- FutureBridge’s press release: “Hydrogen for Zero-emission Heavy-duty Trucks a Reality by 2030.”
- Watch the webinar “Hydrogen-Fueled Commercial Mobility” by registering for free at FutureBridge’s website com.
